ijebuman's diary

The online raves and rants of an Ijebu man in London
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Saturday, September 23, 2006

Why IBB will fail 

Looks like IBB is shifting his campaign into high gear, he has already started the process of 're writing history', by glossing over all the horrible things he did while in power.
In an interview with BBC's Network Africa programme, he claims "In eight years, we made a lot of progress and development of this country and people also benefited," he also states that he had organised the "freest elections that has ever been conducted in the country".

That IBB is now trying to rewrite history shows desperation on his part. He realises that his past misdeeds have now come back to haunt him. All of a sudden he is on the defensive, the same IBB that has always refused to talk about the June 12 election or any of the many accusations against his regime, is now defending his administration.
In his recent interviews IBB has talked about the so called 'Gulf war windfall', the Vatsa coup and June 12. Since IBB is now in the mood to talk maybe he can offer an explanation about who killed Dele Giwa? and the allegations made against him during the Gideon Orkar coup attempt.

IBB is smart enough to realise that the south west and Obj are the major obstacles he has to overcome to return to power.
The south west
His attempts to pacify the south west over june 12 will ultimately fail. He has the likes of Alex Akinyele and one of Abiola's wives campaigning for him, but the thing is, june 12 was bigger than Abiola and even if IBB chooses one of Abiola's wives or kids as his running mate it would not make any difference.
Even on the web IBB seems desperate for yoruba support, www.babangida.com was registered by a 'Adetunji Adeoba' according to whois while www.mribbforpresident.com was registered by a 'Michael Adesina'.

coincidence? i don't think so

Whatever 'agreement' he had with Obj in 99 is no longer valid considering the role he played in frustrating obj's third term agenda. The irony of it all is that he is now in a similar situation that Abiola was in, back in 93. He desperately needs the support of the current resident of Aso rock to get back into power. Talk about role reversal.

IBB's options???
He has none
The thing is, IBB is damaged goods, june 12 will continue to be an albatross around his neck, he should learn from Buhari's experience in 2003. Buhari lost the last election because his opponents kept saying he would introduce sharia. With sites like AgainstBabangida ,Social critics like Gani Fawehinmi, 'former friends' like Mrs Vatsa, a hostile press and a vindictive Obj to contend with, IBB has his work cut out.

It doesn't help that he is still seen as a shifty manipulator, the many years outside power has not changed this perception. If he had spent his time outside power reinventing himself as an elder 'statesman' or philantropist, he might just about convince enough Nigerians to vote for him and/or convince Obj that he can be trusted with the keys to Aso rock.

But will IBB see the writing on the wall ?? As i said in a previous blog entry
'like Maradona's addiction to cocaine (which destroyed his football career), IBB is addicted to power, and his pursuit of that power will ultimately lead to his downfall...'

posted by ijebuman  # 1:42 pm
IBB will fail, make no mistake about it...
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